VS-16
Dependency Risk Score Exceeding Threshold
Value Stream Graph
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationProcessOutputRisk
What it detects
A composite risk score for a node or initiative exceeds the configured threshold — computed from: number of unresolved blocking dependencies, age of blockers, DoD score of blocked node, position on critical path, and number of downstream nodes affected. risk_score(N) = ( blocked_by_count * config.graph.weight_blocked_count + AVG(blocker.age_days) * config.graph.weight_blocker_age + (1 - dod_score(N)) * config.graph.weight_dod_gap + is_critical_path * config.graph.weight_critical_path + downstream_count * config.graph.weight_fan_out )
Detection formula
IF risk_score(N) > config.graph.risk_score_threshold // default: computed percentile 80 THEN FLAG high_risk_node Provide: ranked list of highest-risk nodes per initiativeExamples in practice
- Dependency links or initiative graph paths are missing, cyclic, or blocked.
- Downstream work waits on unresolved upstream dependencies.
- A team shows a composite risk score for a node or initiative exceeds the configured threshold while risk score threshold is set to computed percentile 80.
Suggested response
Repair dependency and initiative graph links so delivery paths and handoffs are explicit.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
A composite risk score for a node or initiative exceeds the configured threshold — computed from: number of unresolved blocking dependencies, age of blockers, DoD score of blocked node, position on critical path, and number of downstream nodes affected. risk_score(N) = ( blocked_by_count * config.graph.weight_blocked_count + AVG(blocker.age_days) * config.graph.weight_blocker_age + (1 - dod_score(N)) * config.graph.weight_dod_gap + is_critical_path * config.graph.weight_critical_path + downstream_count * config.graph.weight_fan_out )
Why it matters
When "Dependency Risk Score Exceeding Threshold" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Repair dependency and initiative graph links so delivery paths and handoffs are explicit.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Dependency Risk Score Exceeding Threshold" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.