VL-08
Velocity Spike — Single Sprint Significantly Above Average
Velocity
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationEstimationOutputEffort
What it detects
A single sprint\'s completed velocity is significantly above the average in any dimension — the team delivered far more than usual. While apparently positive, velocity spikes often indicate: batch closures at PI boundary, artificially reduced scope in prior sprints now flushed, or metric gaming (see MI-01, FL-02). Must be investigated before attributing to genuine improvement.
Detection formula
FOR each_dimension D: IF completed(D, current_sprint) > baseline(D).avg * config.vl.spike_multiplier // default: 1.5x THEN FLAG velocity_spike IF completed(D, current_sprint) > baseline(D).max THEN CRITICAL — exceeds historical max Correlate with: MI-01 (same-second bulk closure), FL-02 (sprint-end transitions), IT-03 (sprint end spike) Report: spike magnitude, prior sprint averages, list of completed issuesExamples in practice
- A team shows a single sprint\'s completed velocity is significantly above the average in any dimension while spike multiplier is set to 1.5x.
- Example signal: A single sprint\'s completed velocity is significantly above the average in any dimension — the team delivered far more than usual.
Suggested response
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
A single sprint\'s completed velocity is significantly above the average in any dimension — the team delivered far more than usual. While apparently positive, velocity spikes often indicate: batch closures at PI boundary, artificially reduced scope in prior sprints now flushed, or metric gaming (see MI-01, FL-02). Must be investigated before attributing to genuine improvement.
Why it matters
When "Velocity Spike — Single Sprint Significantly Above Average" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Velocity Spike — Single Sprint Significantly Above Average" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.