VL-06
Velocity Inconsistency — High Variance Across Sprints
Velocity
Default severity: high
PrioritizationEstimationOutputEffort
What it detects
The team\'s completed velocity varies by more than the configured coefficient of variation across the last N sprints — sprint outputs are unpredictable. A team cannot be reliably forecast if they deliver wildly different amounts each sprint. Measured per dimension.
Detection formula
FOR each_dimension D: cv(D) = baseline(D).stddev / baseline(D).avg // coefficient of variation IF cv(D) > config.vl.inconsistency_cv_threshold // default: 0.35 THEN FLAG velocity_inconsistent in dimension D IF cv(D) > config.vl.critical_cv_threshold // default: 0.55 THEN CRITICAL — forecasting is unreliable Report: cv per dimension, sprint-by-sprint velocity bar chart values, range (min to max)Examples in practice
- A team shows the team\'s completed velocity varies by more than the configured coefficient of variation across the last n sprints while inconsistency cv threshold is set to 0.35.
- Example signal: The team\'s completed velocity varies by more than the configured coefficient of variation across the last N sprints — sprint outputs are unpredictable.
Suggested response
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
The team\'s completed velocity varies by more than the configured coefficient of variation across the last N sprints — sprint outputs are unpredictable. A team cannot be reliably forecast if they deliver wildly different amounts each sprint. Measured per dimension.
Why it matters
When "Velocity Inconsistency — High Variance Across Sprints" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Velocity Inconsistency — High Variance Across Sprints" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.