VL-04
Under-Planning — Sprint Commitment Below Recommended Range
Velocity
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationEstimationOutputEffort
What it detects
The current sprint\'s committed work is below the recommended planning low boundary (median - 1 stddev) in any dimension — the team is under-committing relative to their historical capacity. Under-planning wastes team capacity and slows initiative delivery. May indicate loss of confidence after carry-over or capacity reduction not reflected in sprint planning.
Detection formula
FOR each_dimension D: IF committed(D, current_sprint) \< baseline(D).plan_low THEN FLAG under_planned deficit(D) = baseline(D).plan_low - committed(D) deficit_pct(D) = deficit(D) / baseline(D).plan_low IF deficit_pct(D) > config.vl.underplan_critical_pct // default: 30% THEN CRITICAL (severe capacity waste or team morale concern) Report: committed, plan_low, plan_optimal, deficit per dimension Note: if team_capacity was reduced this sprint, check config.discipline.sprint_capacity_sp firstExamples in practice
- A team shows the current sprint\'s committed work is below the recommended planning low boundary (median - 1 stddev) in any dimension while underplan critical pct is set to 30%.
- Example signal: The current sprint\'s committed work is below the recommended planning low boundary (median - 1 stddev) in any dimension — the team is under-committing relative to their historical capacity.
Suggested response
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
The current sprint\'s committed work is below the recommended planning low boundary (median - 1 stddev) in any dimension — the team is under-committing relative to their historical capacity. Under-planning wastes team capacity and slows initiative delivery. May indicate loss of confidence after carry-over or capacity reduction not reflected in sprint planning.
Why it matters
When "Under-Planning — Sprint Commitment Below Recommended Range" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Under-Planning — Sprint Commitment Below Recommended Range" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.