VL-03
Over-Planning — Sprint Commitment Above Recommended Range
Velocity
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationEstimationOutputEffort
What it detects
The current sprint\'s committed work exceeds the recommended planning high boundary (median + 1 stddev) in any dimension — the team is planning above their comfortable range. Likely to result in carry-over. Less severe than VL-02 but the primary early-warning over-planning signal.
Detection formula
FOR each_dimension D: IF committed(D, current_sprint) > baseline(D).plan_high THEN FLAG over_committed excess(D) = committed(D) - baseline(D).plan_high excess_pct(D) = excess(D) / baseline(D).plan_high IF excess_pct(D) > config.vl.overcommit_critical_pct // default: 20% THEN CRITICAL Report: committed, plan_high, plan_optimal, excess per dimensionExamples in practice
- A team shows the current sprint\'s committed work exceeds the recommended planning high boundary (median + 1 stddev) in any dimension while overcommit critical pct is set to 20%.
- Example signal: The current sprint\'s committed work exceeds the recommended planning high boundary (median + 1 stddev) in any dimension — the team is planning above their comfortable range.
Suggested response
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
The current sprint\'s committed work exceeds the recommended planning high boundary (median + 1 stddev) in any dimension — the team is planning above their comfortable range. Likely to result in carry-over. Less severe than VL-02 but the primary early-warning over-planning signal.
Why it matters
When "Over-Planning — Sprint Commitment Above Recommended Range" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Over-Planning — Sprint Commitment Above Recommended Range" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.