VL-02
Over-Planning — Sprint Commitment Exceeds Historical Maximum
Velocity
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationEstimationOutputEffort
What it detects
The current sprint\'s committed work in any dimension exceeds the team\'s historical maximum across the last N sprints — the team has committed more than they have ever delivered. This is the strongest planning red flag: if you never delivered X, committing X+n is statistically unjustifiable.
Detection formula
FOR each_dimension D: committed(D, current_sprint) = SUM(D, issues IN sprint AT sprint.start) IF committed(D) > baseline(D).max * config.vl.max_overrun_buffer // default: 1.05 (5% tolerance above max) THEN CRITICAL over_planning_beyond_max Report: committed vs max vs median, all three dimensions side by sideExamples in practice
- A team shows the current sprint\'s committed work in any dimension exceeds the team\'s historical maximum across the last n sprints while max overrun buffer is set to 1.05 (5% tolerance above max).
- Example signal: The current sprint\'s committed work in any dimension exceeds the team\'s historical maximum across the last N sprints — the team has committed more than they have ever delivered.
Suggested response
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
The current sprint\'s committed work in any dimension exceeds the team\'s historical maximum across the last N sprints — the team has committed more than they have ever delivered. This is the strongest planning red flag: if you never delivered X, committing X+n is statistically unjustifiable.
Why it matters
When "Over-Planning — Sprint Commitment Exceeds Historical Maximum" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Plan to historical capacity—avoid repeated over or under-commitment and unstable velocity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Over-Planning — Sprint Commitment Exceeds Historical Maximum" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.