SP-01
Velocity Inconsistency
Sprint / Planning
Default severity: high
PrioritizationEstimationOutputEffort
What it detects
Sprint velocity coefficient of variation exceeds the configured threshold — planning is unreliable. velocity_cv = stddev(velocity_per_sprint) / mean(velocity_per_sprint)
Detection formula
IF velocity_cv > config.sprint.velocity_cv_threshold // default: 0.3 THEN WARNExamples in practice
- Sprint commitments, velocity, or late scope changes tell conflicting planning stories.
- Committed scope shifts materially after the sprint lock point.
- A team shows sprint velocity coefficient of variation exceeds the configured threshold while velocity cv threshold is set to 0.3.
Suggested response
Reconcile sprint commitments, velocity signals, and late scope changes with the team.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
Sprint velocity coefficient of variation exceeds the configured threshold — planning is unreliable. velocity_cv = stddev(velocity_per_sprint) / mean(velocity_per_sprint)
Why it matters
When "Velocity Inconsistency" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Reconcile sprint commitments, velocity signals, and late scope changes with the team.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Velocity Inconsistency" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.