SG-06
Worklog Signal — Disproportionate Effort vs Estimate
Signal Chart
Default severity: medium
ProcessMetricsQualityEffort
What it detects
Time logged on an issue has already exceeded the original estimate, but the issue is not yet Done — the issue is overrunning in real time. The signal chart shows the logged hours bar chart with the estimate ceiling as a red line, making the overrun visually clear.
Detection formula
IF original_estimate SET: total_logged = SUM(worklog.time_spent, issue=I) overrun_ratio = total_logged / original_estimate IF overrun_ratio > config.sg.overrun_flag_ratio // default: 1.0 (100% — at estimate) AND issue.status NOT IN done_statuses THEN FLAG estimate_exceeded_in_progress IF overrun_ratio > config.sg.overrun_critical_ratio // default: 2.0 (200% of estimate) THEN CRITICAL Report: original_estimate, total_logged, overrun_ratio, remaining_work (if set)Examples in practice
- A team shows time logged on an issue has already exceeded the original estimate, but the issue is not yet done while overrun flag ratio is set to 1.0 (100% — at estimate).
- Example signal: Time logged on an issue has already exceeded the original estimate, but the issue is not yet Done — the issue is overrunning in real time.
Suggested response
Use worklog shape (gaps, bursts, handoffs) to coach sustainable pacing and clarity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
Time logged on an issue has already exceeded the original estimate, but the issue is not yet Done — the issue is overrunning in real time. The signal chart shows the logged hours bar chart with the estimate ceiling as a red line, making the overrun visually clear.
Why it matters
When "Worklog Signal — Disproportionate Effort vs Estimate" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Use worklog shape (gaps, bursts, handoffs) to coach sustainable pacing and clarity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Worklog Signal — Disproportionate Effort vs Estimate" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.