OL-01
Item Exceeds Upper Control Limit
Outliers
Default severity: medium
MetricsOutputQualityRisk
What it detects
One or more items have cycle time above the computed UCL. UCL multiplier is configurable. Each breach triggers escalation: named owner and resolution deadline required.
Detection formula
UCL = avg + config.ucl.sigma_multiplier * stddev // default: 3 IF any issue.cycle_time > UCL THEN ESCALATE Severity increases with (cycle_time / UCL) ratioExamples in practice
- Story PROJ-421 completes in 38 days when the computed UCL for the team is 12 days.
- One item sits far above the upper control limit while most peers remain inside the band.
- An outlier completion triggers escalation because cycle time exceeds avg + 3× stddev.
Suggested response
Validate whether outliers reflect real incidents or data and process issues before changing targets.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
One or more items have cycle time above the computed UCL. UCL multiplier is configurable. Each breach triggers escalation: named owner and resolution deadline required.
Why it matters
When "Item Exceeds Upper Control Limit" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Validate whether outliers reflect real incidents or data and process issues before changing targets.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Item Exceeds Upper Control Limit" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.