ES-01

Estimation Inconsistency (SP Consistency)

SP Consistency

Default severity: critical
EstimationMetricsQualityEffort

What it detects

Story point allocation consistency falls below the configured threshold — estimation hygiene is broken. Measured as coefficient of variation per team. cv = stddev(sp_per_team) / mean(sp_per_team)

Detection formula

IF cv > config.estimation.consistency_cv_threshold // default: 0.5 OR sp_consistency_pct \< config.estimation.min_consistency_pct // default: 60% THEN FLAG

Examples in practice

  • Estimated at planning; unchanged in sprint
  • Estimates, time logged, and actual effort no longer align for a meaningful share of items.
  • The team commits to sizes that are not supported by historical spend patterns.

Suggested response

Align estimation and logging practices so size, time spent, and scope changes remain comparable.

Coaching playbook

Symptom

Story point allocation consistency falls below the configured threshold — estimation hygiene is broken. Measured as coefficient of variation per team. cv = stddev(sp_per_team) / mean(sp_per_team)

Why it matters

When "Estimation Inconsistency (SP Consistency)" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.

What you can achieve

Align estimation and logging practices so size, time spent, and scope changes remain comparable.

Facilitation questions

  • What system change would stop "Estimation Inconsistency (SP Consistency)" from firing again?
  • What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
  • Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?

Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.

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ES-01: Estimation Inconsistency (SP Consistency) — FlowAnalyzer