EP-06
Estimate Added After Work Started
Estimation Precision
Default severity: medium
EstimationQualityBusiness ValueEffort
What it detects
The original estimate field was set or changed after the issue had already entered an active status — the estimate does not reflect pre-work planning but is a post-hoc rationalisation, making it useless for prediction. first_active_date = changelog.find(status IN config.workflow.active_statuses, EARLIEST).date estimate_set_date = changelog.find(field=\'original_estimate\', EARLIEST).date
Detection formula
IF estimate_set_date IS NULL THEN FLAG missing_estimate (see ES-03) IF estimate_set_date > first_active_date THEN FLAG post_hoc_estimate coverage = COUNT(issues with pre-activation estimate) / total_estimated_issues IF coverage \< config.ep.min_preactivation_estimate_pct // default: 70% THEN FLAG systemic_post_hoc_estimationExamples in practice
- A team shows the original estimate field was set or changed after the issue had already entered an active status while min preactivation estimate pct is set to 70%.
- Example signal: The original estimate field was set or changed after the issue had already entered an active status — the estimate does not reflect pre-work planning but is a post-hoc rationalisation, making it useless for prediction.
Suggested response
Recalibrate estimation precision—check size classes, drift, and BV vs effort trade-offs.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
The original estimate field was set or changed after the issue had already entered an active status — the estimate does not reflect pre-work planning but is a post-hoc rationalisation, making it useless for prediction. first_active_date = changelog.find(status IN config.workflow.active_statuses, EARLIEST).date estimate_set_date = changelog.find(field=\'original_estimate\', EARLIEST).date
Why it matters
When "Estimate Added After Work Started" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Recalibrate estimation precision—check size classes, drift, and BV vs effort trade-offs.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Estimate Added After Work Started" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.