CT-02
Rolling Avg Divergence
Cycle Time
Default severity: medium
ProcessMetricsOutputRisk
What it detects
Rolling average diverges upward from the overall period average for the configured number of consecutive days — indicates active deterioration in progress.
Detection formula
IF rolling_avg > overall_avg * config.ct.rolling_divergence_factor // default: 1.2 AND trend(rolling_avg, config.ct.divergence_window_days) = \'up\' // default: 30d THEN FLAGExamples in practice
- The 30-day rolling average climbs above the overall period average for a full month while the trend stays upward.
- Recent completions take longer than the historical baseline even though headline throughput looks stable.
- Control-chart review shows sustained upward drift rather than a one-week spike.
Suggested response
Review cycle-time drivers on the cited work items; tighten WIP or handoffs where delays repeat.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
Rolling average diverges upward from the overall period average for the configured number of consecutive days — indicates active deterioration in progress.
Why it matters
When "Rolling Avg Divergence" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Review cycle-time drivers on the cited work items; tighten WIP or handoffs where delays repeat.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Rolling Avg Divergence" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.