CO-06
Carry-Over Rate Increasing Over Time
Carry-Over
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationOutputRiskEffort
What it detects
The carry-over rate is trending upward across consecutive sprints — sprint planning reliability is actively deteriorating, not improving. A single high carry-over sprint may be an anomaly; a trend confirms a systemic problem. carryover_series = \[carryover_rate_sp(S)
Detection formula
FOR S in last config.co.trend_window_sprints\] IF linear_regression(carryover_series).slope > 0 AND r_squared > config.co.trend_r_squared // default: 0.6 AND n_sprints >= config.co.min_sprints_for_trend // default: 4 THEN FLAG increasing_overplanning Report: carryover rate as time series (issues, SP, BV dimensions all shown)Examples in practice
- A team shows the carry-over rate is trending upward across consecutive sprints while trend window sprints is set to 0.6.
- Example signal: The carry-over rate is trending upward across consecutive sprints — sprint planning reliability is actively deteriorating, not improving.
Suggested response
Address chronic carry-over by rightsizing sprints and finishing or splitting stuck work.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
The carry-over rate is trending upward across consecutive sprints — sprint planning reliability is actively deteriorating, not improving. A single high carry-over sprint may be an anomaly; a trend confirms a systemic problem. carryover_series = \[carryover_rate_sp(S)
Why it matters
When "Carry-Over Rate Increasing Over Time" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Address chronic carry-over by rightsizing sprints and finishing or splitting stuck work.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Carry-Over Rate Increasing Over Time" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.