CO-03
Team-Level Carry-Over Rate — Over-Planning Signal
Carry-Over
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationOutputRiskEffort
What it detects
A team\'s carry-over rate (SP or issue count not completed per sprint, divided by committed) exceeds the configured threshold over the trailing N sprints — the team is systematically over-committing in sprint planning. This is the primary quantitative over-planning indicator.
Detection formula
FOR each_team T: FOR each_sprint S in last config.co.trend_window_sprints (default: 4): carryover_rate_sp(T, S) = SUM(sp, carried_issues\[T,S\]) / committed_sp(T, S) avg_carryover_rate(T) = AVG(carryover_rate_sp, last 4 sprints) IF avg_carryover_rate(T) > config.co.overplanning_threshold // default: 25% THEN FLAG overplanning IF avg_carryover_rate(T) > config.co.critical_overplanning_threshold // default: 40% THEN CRITICAL — team commitment reliability is broken Include issue count, SP, hours, and BV carry-over rates separatelyExamples in practice
- A team shows a team\'s carry-over rate (sp or issue count not completed per sprint, divided by committed) exceeds the configured threshold over the trailing n sprints while trend window sprints is set to Configured per workspace.
- Example signal: A team\'s carry-over rate (SP or issue count not completed per sprint, divided by committed) exceeds the configured threshold over the trailing N sprints — the team is systematically over-committing in sprint planning.
Suggested response
Address chronic carry-over by rightsizing sprints and finishing or splitting stuck work.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
A team\'s carry-over rate (SP or issue count not completed per sprint, divided by committed) exceeds the configured threshold over the trailing N sprints — the team is systematically over-committing in sprint planning. This is the primary quantitative over-planning indicator.
Why it matters
When "Team-Level Carry-Over Rate — Over-Planning Signal" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Address chronic carry-over by rightsizing sprints and finishing or splitting stuck work.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Team-Level Carry-Over Rate — Over-Planning Signal" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.