CFD-10
Arrival Rate Spike Without Capacity Change
CFD
Default severity: medium
ProcessMetricsOutputRisk
What it detects
New item arrival rate increases by more than the configured spike threshold without a corresponding team capacity change.
Detection formula
IF arrival_rate(t) > baseline_arrival * config.cfd.arrival_spike_threshold // default: 1.4x AND capacity_change = false // verified via team roster config or manual flag THEN WARN Projected cycle_time_impact = new_wip / current_throughputExamples in practice
- Cumulative flow bands widen, invert, or stall while throughput fails to keep pace.
- Stage WIP grows without matching completion slope on the CFD.
- A team shows new item arrival rate increases by more than the configured spike threshold without a corresponding team capacity change while arrival spike threshold is set to 1.4x.
Suggested response
Read stage WIP and throughput together; relieve bottlenecks and balance arrival vs capacity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
New item arrival rate increases by more than the configured spike threshold without a corresponding team capacity change.
Why it matters
When "Arrival Rate Spike Without Capacity Change" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Read stage WIP and throughput together; relieve bottlenecks and balance arrival vs capacity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Arrival Rate Spike Without Capacity Change" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.