CFD-09
Sudden WIP Drop Without Throughput Spike
CFD
Default severity: medium
ProcessMetricsOutputRisk
What it detects
Total WIP drops by more than the configured percentage without a proportional Done spike — possible silent deletions or board migrations.
Detection formula
IF wip_delta \< -(config.cfd.wip_drop_threshold * wip_prev) // default: 20% AND done_delta \< config.cfd.done_vs_wip_drop_ratio * ABS(wip_delta) // default: 50% THEN FLAG data_integrity Cross-check: Jira audit log for deletions or project movesExamples in practice
- Cumulative flow bands widen, invert, or stall while throughput fails to keep pace.
- Stage WIP grows without matching completion slope on the CFD.
- A team shows total wip drops by more than the configured percentage without a proportional done spike while wip drop threshold is set to 20%.
Suggested response
Read stage WIP and throughput together; relieve bottlenecks and balance arrival vs capacity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
Total WIP drops by more than the configured percentage without a proportional Done spike — possible silent deletions or board migrations.
Why it matters
When "Sudden WIP Drop Without Throughput Spike" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Read stage WIP and throughput together; relieve bottlenecks and balance arrival vs capacity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Sudden WIP Drop Without Throughput Spike" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.