CFD-06
Rising WIP Without Rising Throughput
CFD
Default severity: medium
ProcessMetricsOutputRisk
What it detects
WIP is increasing while throughput rate is flat or declining in the same window — Little\'s Law violation. Projected cycle time increase is computed.
Detection formula
IF delta_wip > 0 AND delta_throughput \<= 0 OVER config.cfd.littles_law_window // default: 30d THEN FLAG Projected: cycle_time_T+N = new_wip / current_throughput (Little\'s Law)Examples in practice
- Cumulative flow bands widen, invert, or stall while throughput fails to keep pace.
- Stage WIP grows without matching completion slope on the CFD.
- A team shows wip is increasing while throughput rate is flat or declining in the same window while littles law window is set to 30d.
Suggested response
Read stage WIP and throughput together; relieve bottlenecks and balance arrival vs capacity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
WIP is increasing while throughput rate is flat or declining in the same window — Little\'s Law violation. Projected cycle time increase is computed.
Why it matters
When "Rising WIP Without Rising Throughput" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Read stage WIP and throughput together; relieve bottlenecks and balance arrival vs capacity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Rising WIP Without Rising Throughput" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.