CFD-05
Declining Throughput Rate
CFD
Default severity: medium
ProcessMetricsOutputRisk
What it detects
Done band slope in the recent window is lower than in the prior window by more than the configured decline threshold. throughput_decline = throughput(t_recent) / throughput(t_prior)
Detection formula
IF throughput_decline \< config.cfd.throughput_decline_threshold // default: 0.8 THEN FLAGExamples in practice
- Cumulative flow bands widen, invert, or stall while throughput fails to keep pace.
- Stage WIP grows without matching completion slope on the CFD.
- A team shows done band slope in the recent window is lower than in the prior window by more than the configured decline threshold while throughput decline threshold is set to 0.8.
Suggested response
Read stage WIP and throughput together; relieve bottlenecks and balance arrival vs capacity.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
Done band slope in the recent window is lower than in the prior window by more than the configured decline threshold. throughput_decline = throughput(t_recent) / throughput(t_prior)
Why it matters
When "Declining Throughput Rate" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Read stage WIP and throughput together; relieve bottlenecks and balance arrival vs capacity.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Declining Throughput Rate" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.