CC-07
Rolling Avg Below LCL
Control Chart
Default severity: medium
ProcessMetricsOutputRisk
What it detects
Rolling average dropped below the computed LCL — completions happening faster than statistically expected. Investigate for workflow bypass. LCL = max(0, avg - config.ucl.sigma_multiplier * stddev)
Detection formula
IF rolling_avg \< LCL THEN INVESTIGATE Cross-reference with OL-03Examples in practice
- Rolling averages, control limits, or band width diverge from expected statistical bounds.
- Recent control-chart windows show drift, clusters, or missing limit configuration.
- A team shows rolling average dropped below the computed lcl during analysis.
Suggested response
Treat the metric as a control signal: confirm limits, windows, and cross-team spread before acting.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
Rolling average dropped below the computed LCL — completions happening faster than statistically expected. Investigate for workflow bypass. LCL = max(0, avg - config.ucl.sigma_multiplier * stddev)
Why it matters
When "Rolling Avg Below LCL" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Treat the metric as a control signal: confirm limits, windows, and cross-team spread before acting.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Rolling Avg Below LCL" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.