CA-08
Done Slope Insufficient vs Growth Slope
CFD Advanced
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationProcessMetricsOutputRisk
What it detects
Done band slope is lower than the total WIP growth slope — for every completion, more than the configured ratio of new items enter. System is structurally accumulating. done_slope = linear_regression(done_cumulative, config.ca.slope_window).slope arrival_slope = linear_regression(total_items, config.ca.slope_window).slope gap = arrival_slope - done_slope
Detection formula
IF gap > 0 THEN FLAG IF gap > arrival_slope * config.ca.critical_gap_ratio // default: 0.3 THEN CRITICAL Project months_until_wip_doubles = current_wip / (gap * periods_per_month)Examples in practice
- A team shows done band slope is lower than the total wip growth slope while critical gap ratio is set to 0.3.
- Example signal: Done band slope is lower than the total WIP growth slope — for every completion, more than the configured ratio of new items enter.
Suggested response
Use planning-event context when interpreting advanced CFD bottlenecks, spikes, and ageing WIP.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
Done band slope is lower than the total WIP growth slope — for every completion, more than the configured ratio of new items enter. System is structurally accumulating. done_slope = linear_regression(done_cumulative, config.ca.slope_window).slope arrival_slope = linear_regression(total_items, config.ca.slope_window).slope gap = arrival_slope - done_slope
Why it matters
When "Done Slope Insufficient vs Growth Slope" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Use planning-event context when interpreting advanced CFD bottlenecks, spikes, and ageing WIP.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Done Slope Insufficient vs Growth Slope" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.