CA-07
Multi-Stage Synchronised Step
CFD Advanced
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationProcessMetricsOutputRisk
What it detects
Statistically significant steps occur simultaneously across the configured minimum number of stages on the same date — confirms portfolio-level batch event.
Detection formula
step_threshold = config.ca.step_threshold_multiplier * avg_daily_delta\[stage\] // default: 2x normal daily change FOR each_date D: stages_with_step = COUNT(stages WHERE delta(D, D-1) > step_threshold) IF stages_with_step >= config.ca.min_stages_for_portfolio_event // default: 3 THEN FLAG multi_stage_batch_event IF stages_with_step >= config.ca.critical_stage_count // default: 5 THEN CRITICALExamples in practice
- A team shows statistically significant steps occur simultaneously across the configured minimum number of stages on the same date while step threshold multiplier is set to 2x normal daily change.
- Example signal: Statistically significant steps occur simultaneously across the configured minimum number of stages on the same date — confirms portfolio-level batch event.
Suggested response
Use planning-event context when interpreting advanced CFD bottlenecks, spikes, and ageing WIP.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
Statistically significant steps occur simultaneously across the configured minimum number of stages on the same date — confirms portfolio-level batch event.
Why it matters
When "Multi-Stage Synchronised Step" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Use planning-event context when interpreting advanced CFD bottlenecks, spikes, and ageing WIP.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Multi-Stage Synchronised Step" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.