CA-07

Multi-Stage Synchronised Step

CFD Advanced

Default severity: medium
PrioritizationProcessMetricsOutputRisk

What it detects

Statistically significant steps occur simultaneously across the configured minimum number of stages on the same date — confirms portfolio-level batch event.

Detection formula

step_threshold = config.ca.step_threshold_multiplier * avg_daily_delta\[stage\] // default: 2x normal daily change FOR each_date D: stages_with_step = COUNT(stages WHERE delta(D, D-1) > step_threshold) IF stages_with_step >= config.ca.min_stages_for_portfolio_event // default: 3 THEN FLAG multi_stage_batch_event IF stages_with_step >= config.ca.critical_stage_count // default: 5 THEN CRITICAL

Examples in practice

  • A team shows statistically significant steps occur simultaneously across the configured minimum number of stages on the same date while step threshold multiplier is set to 2x normal daily change.
  • Example signal: Statistically significant steps occur simultaneously across the configured minimum number of stages on the same date — confirms portfolio-level batch event.

Suggested response

Use planning-event context when interpreting advanced CFD bottlenecks, spikes, and ageing WIP.

Coaching playbook

Symptom

Statistically significant steps occur simultaneously across the configured minimum number of stages on the same date — confirms portfolio-level batch event.

Why it matters

When "Multi-Stage Synchronised Step" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.

What you can achieve

Use planning-event context when interpreting advanced CFD bottlenecks, spikes, and ageing WIP.

Facilitation questions

  • What system change would stop "Multi-Stage Synchronised Step" from firing again?
  • What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
  • Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?

Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.

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CA-07: Multi-Stage Synchronised Step — FlowAnalyzer