BC-07
Epic Burn-Down — Disproportionate Remaining Work vs Time Elapsed
Burn Charts
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationMetricsOutputEffort
What it detects
An epic has consumed more than the configured proportion of its estimated timeline but has less than the inverse proportion of its work completed — time is running out faster than work is finishing, across any dimension. time_elapsed_pct = (today - epic.start) / (planned_end - epic.start)
Detection formula
FOR each_dimension D: work_done_pct(D) = done(D, epic) / total(D, epic) IF time_elapsed_pct > config.bc.time_work_imbalance_threshold // default: 0.6 (60% time elapsed) AND work_done_pct(D) \< (1 - config.bc.time_work_imbalance_threshold) // \< 40% done THEN FLAG dimension D IF time_elapsed_pct > 0.8 AND work_done_pct(D) \< 0.5 THEN CRITICALExamples in practice
- A team shows an epic has consumed more than the configured proportion of its estimated timeline but has less than the inverse proportion of its work completed while time work imbalance threshold is set to 0.6 (60% time elapsed).
- Example signal: An epic has consumed more than the configured proportion of its estimated timeline but has less than the inverse proportion of its work completed — time is running out faster than work is finishing, across any dimension.
Suggested response
Re-plan remaining scope when burn charts show late work, scope creep, or stalls.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
An epic has consumed more than the configured proportion of its estimated timeline but has less than the inverse proportion of its work completed — time is running out faster than work is finishing, across any dimension. time_elapsed_pct = (today - epic.start) / (planned_end - epic.start)
Why it matters
When "Epic Burn-Down — Disproportionate Remaining Work vs Time Elapsed" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Re-plan remaining scope when burn charts show late work, scope creep, or stalls.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Epic Burn-Down — Disproportionate Remaining Work vs Time Elapsed" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.