BC-04
Burn-Up — Scope Line Rising Faster Than Completion Line
Burn Charts
Default severity: medium
PrioritizationMetricsOutputEffort
What it detects
In the burn-up chart, the total scope line (committed work ceiling) is rising faster than the completed work line across any tracked dimension — the gap between done and total is widening, not narrowing. The initiative will never converge at current rates.
Detection formula
FOR each_dimension D: scope_slope(D) = linear_regression(total_committed_series(D)).slope done_slope(D) = linear_regression(total_done_series(D)).slope IF scope_slope(D) > done_slope(D) THEN FLAG gap_weeks = (current_gap(D) / (done_slope(D) - scope_slope(D))) / 7 // weeks to convergence IF gap_weeks \< 0 THEN CRITICAL — lines diverging, no convergence possibleExamples in practice
- A team shows in the burn-up chart, the total scope line (committed work ceiling) is rising faster than the completed work line across any tracked dimension during analysis.
- Example signal: In the burn-up chart, the total scope line (committed work ceiling) is rising faster than the completed work line across any tracked dimension — the gap between done and total is widening, not narrowing.
Suggested response
Re-plan remaining scope when burn charts show late work, scope creep, or stalls.
Coaching playbook
Symptom
In the burn-up chart, the total scope line (committed work ceiling) is rising faster than the completed work line across any tracked dimension — the gap between done and total is widening, not narrowing. The initiative will never converge at current rates.
Why it matters
When "Burn-Up — Scope Line Rising Faster Than Completion Line" keeps appearing, the team is signalling a repeatable process gap. Left unexamined, the pattern hides where work really stalls and makes improvement metrics harder to trust.
What you can achieve
Re-plan remaining scope when burn charts show late work, scope creep, or stalls.
Facilitation questions
- What system change would stop "Burn-Up — Scope Line Rising Faster Than Completion Line" from firing again?
- What do the cited issues have in common — same root cause or same workaround?
- Who owns the two-week experiment and how will we verify on the next import?
Run this rule against your own tracker data with Flow Analyzer.